"Losers" In Burnett Sweepstakes Just Might End Up Being Winners

So the Toronto Blue Jays won the sweepstakes for free agent starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, late of the Florida Marlins. They’ll pay him something like $55 million for the next five years to take the mound every fifth day.
Burnett was 12-12 for the Marlins in 2005, yet was considered the cream of the free agent pitching crop.
The Tigers were thought to be interested in Burnett, because of his ties to team president Dave Dombrowski, and because of the Bengals’ need for starting pitching.

So the Jays "won", and you know what? They can have him.

Just what kind of a season does A.J. Burnett have to have in 2006 to justify being paid $11 million? For that dough, I figure 350 innings, 25 wins, and 275 strikeouts, with an ERA of around 2.00 would fit the bill. Of course, in today’s baseball world, I suspect the Jays will settle for 180 innings, 15 wins, 150 strikeouts, and an ERA that doesn’t touch 4.25.

That’s the way it is with free agent starting pitchers, you know. You overpay -- way, way overpay -- then explain yourself a couple years later, when the contract looks ugly and begins to resemble a homely girl the morning after you took her home from the bar after a few too many drinks. But if the Blue Jays want to feel like winners, and if the Tigers want to feel jilted, that’s fine. Everyone has my permission.

But the odds are so very against pitchers who get the free agent bucks, as history will bear me out. Their arms do funny things as soon as the first paycheck clears the bank, it seems. And A.J. Burnett wasn’t even the first free agent the Blue Jays signed this month. Last week the Jays gave closer B.J. Ryan a five-year, $47 million booty. That’s over $100 million tied up in two pitchers between now and 2010. So tell me what makes the Blue Jays "winners" in this scenario, again?

Look what happened to Carl Pavano, for example. Last winter the Tigers, among other teams, stumbled all over themselves trying to convince Pavano, a free agent starter from Florida, to sign with them. They wined and dined him -- similar to the tact that was successful in landing closer Troy Percival. And we all know how that turned out. Anyhow, Pavano chose the Yankees, had a miserable - ahhh, so typical -- season, and is now on the trading block. One of the interested teams as far as talking trade? The Tigers, naturally.

I’ve always thought fat contracts for free agent pitchers -- starters or relievers -- was mostly wasted money, mainly because, first of all, they are not everyday players, and secondly, they have to have such oustanding years to even come close to justifying the contract in the first place. Anything else feels like wasted dollars. Better to develop your own young arms, if you ask me.

I’m not sure how deep into the bidding the Tigers got for Burnett’s services, but I have a hunch it was probably a good thing that they "lost" out to the Blue Jays. You see, while you can never have too many good arms on your staff, you CAN have too many expensive, not-worth-all-that-money arms. They drain the bank accounts dry, and who needs a player who can only play every fifth game, anyway? They don’t even finish what they started, for heaven’s sake.